Coin Newsweek – February 26, 2026 (18:30 UTC) – Gold prices are holding steady near the psychologically significant $5,200 per ounce level, as investors weigh a complex mix of geopolitical developments, trade policy uncertainty, and bullish institutional forecasts. The precious metal continues to benefit from its status as a safe-haven asset amid global turbulence [citation:1][citation:5].
Spot gold was trading at approximately $5,190 per ounce during late European trading hours, reflecting a modest pullback after touching a three-week high of $5,248.89 earlier in the week. The metal has now gained roughly 20% since the beginning of 2026, building on an extraordinary 64% rally in 2025 [citation:2][citation:9].
Geopolitical Crosscurrents: Iran Talks in Focus
Markets are closely monitoring the latest round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran, scheduled to take place in Geneva on Thursday. The outcome of these talks could have significant implications for both gold and oil markets [citation:1][citation:2].
US envoys are meeting with the Iranian delegation amid heightened military tensions, following a significant US troop buildup in the Middle East and fresh sanctions on entities linked to Iranian oil and weapons exports. Analysts suggest that a constructive resolution could prompt markets to unwind some of the recent risk premium, while a breakdown could trigger renewed safe-haven buying [citation:2][citation:5].
“The outcome of US-Iran nuclear talks today will be key to the direction of prices,” analysts at ING wrote in a note. “A constructive resolution would likely prompt the market to gradually unwind as much as a $10 per barrel risk premium in oil, which would also influence broader sentiment toward precious metals” [citation:2].
Trade Policy Uncertainty Persists
Adding to the complex backdrop, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed that President Trump intends to raise global tariffs to 15% “where appropriate,” following the recent implementation of a 10% levy. This escalation in trade policy rhetoric has reinforced gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty and potential currency depreciation [citation:1][citation:7].
“Price action reflects a re-pricing of fresh policy (tariff) uncertainty, geopolitical concerns and a subdued dollar,” said Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC. “Two-way consolidation is still likely in the interim as markets digest geopolitical news, dollar moves, tariff surprises and Fed policy uncertainty” [citation:5].
Institutional Forecasts Point Higher
Despite the near-term consolidation, major financial institutions are projecting significant further upside for gold. JPMorgan has reiterated its forecast that gold could reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, representing a potential 21% gain from current levels [citation:2][citation:4][citation:9].
The bank cites sustained demand from central banks and investors as key drivers. JPMorgan analysts note that central bank purchases, while expected to moderate from the 1,000+ ton levels of recent years, are likely to remain near 755 tons in 2026—still substantially above the pre-2022 average of 400-500 tons annually [citation:4].
“Even if central bank gold purchases have exceeded 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, the structural trend of increasing central bank purchases still has room for further development by 2026,” JPMorgan Global Research wrote, adding that investor demand through ETFs, futures, bars, and coins should remain robust [citation:4].
Bank of America has also joined the bullish chorus, projecting that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce within the next 12 months [citation:2][citation:4]. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs sees sovereign buying potentially pushing prices toward $5,400 by year-end, while UBS has raised its long-term target to $6,200, citing an impending era of “extreme scarcity” as 80 gold mines are projected to exhaust capacity by 2028 [citation:6][citation:8].
Technical Levels and Market Sentiment
From a technical perspective, gold remains in a well-defined uptrend. Analysts at RoboForex note that XAUUSD is trading within an ascending channel, with immediate resistance at $5,335 and the next upside target near $5,560. On the downside, support is seen at $5,090 and $4,860 [citation:10].
Market sentiment indicators remain constructive. Deutsche Bank observed that white metals have resumed outperforming gold, with the gold-silver ratio falling to 57—below the bank’s longer-term assumption range of 60-65. This dynamic supports the bank’s year-end silver forecast of $100 per ounce [citation:5].
Investor positioning also reflects bullish expectations. Futures markets show continued long positioning, and ETF inflows have turned positive after a period of outflows earlier in the year. The CME FedWatch tool currently prices in three 25-basis-point rate cuts for 2026, which would further support non-yielding gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the metal [citation:5].
Looking Ahead
As the trading session progresses, markets will also monitor US weekly jobless claims data for additional clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. A weaker-than-expected labor market reading could reinforce rate cut expectations and provide additional support for gold [citation:10].
Analysts caution that volatility is likely to remain elevated given the confluence of geopolitical and policy uncertainties. While the long-term structural case for gold appears intact, short-term corrections remain possible as markets digest developments and traders take profits following the recent rally [citation:3][citation:7].
For now, gold’s ability to hold above $5,200 despite mixed signals demonstrates the depth of underlying demand. With central banks continuing to accumulate, institutional forecasts pointing higher, and geopolitical risks showing no signs of abating, the precious metal appears well-positioned to maintain its status as a preferred safe-haven asset in an uncertain world.
Sources: Mettis Global / Yahoo Finance / Moneycontrol / JPMorgan / Bank of America / ZAWYA / Reuters / RoboForex
Disclaimer: This content is for market information only and is not investment advice.
