Coin Newsweek – March 3, 2026 – Bitcoin’s recent price behavior may be flashing early signs of stabilization, but analysts are warning against mistaking a tactical reprieve for a full-blown trend reversal. According to a market update from 10x Research, the leading cryptocurrency is showing evidence that selling pressure could be waning, yet the broader bear market structure remains firmly in place.
The analysis highlights that Bitcoin’s failure to accelerate its decline, even in the face of risk-off macroeconomic headlines, is a significant clue that downside momentum is exhausting itself. “Bitcoin failed to accelerate lower on risk-off headlines, a signal that downside pressure may be losing momentum,” the report states.
Chart 1: Bitcoin 4-hour chart showing price action near $67,960, key moving averages, and RSI at 55.43 (Source: TradingView)
Chart Analysis: Key Levels in Focus
The 4-hour chart reveals Bitcoin trading at $67,960, hovering just below the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $67,745. The price action shows a consolidation pattern following the recent rebound from $62,500 lows. The 50-period EMA sits at $66,885, providing immediate support, while the 200-period EMA at $71,328 represents the next major resistance level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads 55.43, moving higher from 54.34 and approaching neutral territory. This gradual uptick in momentum confirms the analysis from 10x Research that selling pressure is diminishing, though the RSI remains below the 60 level that would signal stronger bullish momentum.
Key Technical Levels Hold Firm
Several technical indicators are converging to suggest a potential stabilization phase. Bitcoin is currently reclaiming its 20-day moving average, which sits near the $68,500 mark. Simultaneously, the Bollinger Bands are tightening—a classic setup that often precedes a period of heightened volatility or a significant range expansion.
Perhaps most critically for market structure, the $62,500 level has now successfully held as support on three separate tests. Analysts at 10x Research describe this as “reinforcing it as meaningful support,” suggesting that buyers have consistently stepped in to defend that price zone. The 4-hour chart visually confirms this, showing multiple touches of this level followed by rebounds.
Divergence Hints at Momentum Shift
Looking under the hood at momentum indicators, a more nuanced picture emerges. The report notes that “bullish divergences are emerging,” with both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and stochastic indicators trending higher. This is significant because prices are making lower lows while momentum oscillators are making higher lows—an early technical sign that selling pressure is losing its grip, even within a broader bearish framework.
The RSI’s climb from oversold territory below 30 to its current 55.43 level illustrates this divergence clearly. While Bitcoin’s price remains well below its January highs, momentum has recovered substantially, suggesting that the pace of selling has slowed considerably.
Tactical Shift vs. Structural Reversal
Despite these budding positive signals, 10x Research is unequivocal about the bigger picture: the bear market is not over. The firm’s “broader allocation framework still classifies Bitcoin as being in a bear market regime,” which means that any bullish exposure should be viewed as tactical rather than structural.
The core message is one of differentiation: short-term trading opportunities may be emerging, but the medium-term trend has not yet confirmed a turn. This sentiment is echoed by other market observers who point to a shift from “frantic to somewhat measured” price action, which bodes well for a period of consolidation or range-bound trading, even if it doesn’t herald an immediate return to all-time highs.
The 200-period EMA at $71,328 serves as a critical battleground. A decisive break above this level would signal potential trend reversal, while continued rejection would reinforce the bearish structure. The current price action shows Bitcoin respecting this resistance, with recent highs failing to break through.
The ‘Short Squeeze’ Factor
Some of the recent bounce can be attributed to dynamics in the derivatives market. Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, explains that deeply negative funding rates led to overcrowded short positions in perpetual futures. This setup triggered a classic short squeeze when the price bounced sharply from the $63,000 lows, forcing heavy liquidations and providing tactical relief to the market.
However, he warns that a confirmed trend reversal is absent because “structural inflows remain absent” and “macro catalysts are lacking.” The broader downtrend persists, characterized by fragile liquidity and ongoing uncertainty. The 4-hour chart’s descending moving averages (50, 100, and 200 EMAs stacked bearishly) confirm that the medium-term trend remains downward despite recent stabilization.
What to Watch Next
For traders, the immediate focus will be on whether Bitcoin can hold above the $62,500 support level while attempting to challenge resistance near the 20-day moving average and Bollinger Band mid-line. A decisive break above $68,500 would open the door to testing higher levels, while a failure to hold support could invite another leg down.
The coming days will likely determine whether the current stabilization evolves into a more meaningful recovery or simply represents a pause within an ongoing bear market. Either way, 10x Research’s cautious stance serves as a reminder that patience and risk management remain essential virtues in the current environment.
Sources: Cointelegraph / 10x Research / Bitrue / TradingView
Disclaimer: This content is for market information only and is not investment advice.
