Coin Newsweek – February 24, 2026 – A new analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence suggests Coinbase could see its stablecoin revenue multiply by two to seven times if payment adoption accelerates under the proposed Genius Act regulatory framework. However, the same legislation contains provisions that could fundamentally alter the exchange’s lucrative partnership with USDC issuer Circle.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Paul Gulberg and Samuel Radowitz project that Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue is on track to reach $1.35 billion by 2025, a figure that would represent approximately 19% of the company’s total projected revenue. This baseline already positions stablecoins as a critical revenue stream for the publicly traded exchange.
The analysts’ more bullish scenario envisions what they describe as “payment adoption acceleration under the Genius Act,” which could expand this revenue stream by two to seven times. Such growth would transform stablecoin-related income into a multi-billion dollar annual business for Coinbase, fundamentally altering the company’s revenue composition and valuation metrics.
The Genius Act, formally known as the “Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act,” represents a comprehensive attempt to create a federal regulatory framework for stablecoin issuance and usage. If enacted, it would provide the regulatory clarity that industry participants have long sought, potentially unlocking broader adoption by institutional users and payment companies.
However, the proposed legislation contains provisions that could complicate Coinbase’s existing stablecoin strategy. The Act prohibits issuers from paying interest or yields to stablecoin holders—a restriction designed to maintain the clear distinction between stablecoins as payment instruments and securities or investment products.
This prohibition could have ripple effects on Coinbase’s relationship with Circle, the issuer of USDC. Currently, Coinbase and Circle share revenue generated from the USDC reserve’s interest income, with Coinbase receiving a portion for its role in distributing the stablecoin and providing platform support. The Genius Act’s restrictions on interest payments to holders do not directly address issuer-exchange revenue sharing, but ongoing draft negotiations may further restrict exchanges from awarding rewards or incentives tied to stablecoin balances.
Such restrictions would directly impact the current model where platforms like Coinbase offer yield-bearing products or rewards programs linked to stablecoin holdings. The ability to generate passive income on stablecoin balances has been a key driver of USDC adoption among retail and institutional users.
The analysts’ report highlights the dual nature of regulatory progress: while clear rules can unlock massive growth by bringing in institutional capital and payment companies, they can also constrain the specific mechanisms that made existing products successful. For Coinbase, navigating this tension will be critical to realizing the upside potential while adapting to new compliance requirements.
The projected 2-7x growth multiple reflects not just increased adoption but also the potential for stablecoins to penetrate traditional payment flows. If regulated stablecoins become a standard settlement layer for e-commerce, remittances, and business-to-business payments, the addressable market expands far beyond the current crypto-native use cases.
Coinbase has positioned itself as a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto economy, with stablecoin infrastructure playing a central role in that strategy. The exchange’s deep integration with USDC—including its role as a distribution partner and its inclusion of USDC in its “base” layer-2 network—creates multiple revenue touchpoints from stablecoin activity.
For Circle, the Genius Act represents both opportunity and challenge similar to those facing Coinbase. As the second-largest stablecoin issuer globally, Circle stands to benefit from regulatory clarity that could make USDC the preferred choice for regulated institutions. However, the company must also adapt its business model to any restrictions on reserve management and revenue distribution.
The analysts note that draft negotiations remain ongoing, meaning the final legislative language could differ significantly from current proposals. Industry participants are actively lobbying for provisions that preserve innovation while satisfying regulatory objectives, a balancing act that will determine the ultimate impact on companies like Coinbase and Circle.
As the stablecoin regulatory landscape takes shape, Coinbase finds itself at the intersection of massive opportunity and significant strategic adaptation. The analysts’ projections suggest that getting the balance right could yield exponential growth—but only if the company can navigate the complex trade-offs embedded in the Genius Act framework.
Sources: Bloomberg Intelligence / Paul Gulberg & Samuel Radowitz analysis / Genius Act draft language / Coinbase financial projections
