Bitcoin price may rebound to $85K as CME ‘smart money’ slashes shorts
Futures traders slashed bearish Bitcoin bets last month, a shift that preceded a 70% rally in 2025 and a 190% increase in the BTC price in 2023.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the verge of a significant recovery, with data showing that “smart money” on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has dramatically reduced its bearish positioning. According to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report, non-commercial Bitcoin futures traders—a category that includes hedge funds and other large speculators—have shifted their net position from approximately +1,000 contracts a month ago to around -1,600 contracts.
In practice, this rapid unwind of net shorts means these institutional players have moved from a net short to a net long stance, with bullish positions now outnumbering bearish ones on the CME. Analyst Tom McClellan noted that this shift suggests “smart money” has been adding long positions “with some urgency,” highlighting two similar past swings that preceded major Bitcoin price bottoms.
For instance, following a sharp decline in CME Bitcoin futures net shorts in April 2025, BTC’s price gained around 70%. Similarly, in 2023, a comparable setup in the futures market was followed by a price surge of over 190%.
As of February, this positioning shift is re-emerging just as Bitcoin defends its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), a level that has historically acted as a bear-market floor during major drawdowns in 2015, 2018, and 2020. On Sunday, BTC’s 200-week EMA was hovering near $68,350.
Adding to the bullish technical setup, Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) remains in oversold territory, a sign that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion. Analysts suggest that a decisive rebound from the 200-week EMA could trigger a run-up toward the 100-week EMA, which sits at roughly $85,000, potentially by April.
However, analysts caution that the market is not out of the woods yet. McClellan warned that the smart money shift is “a condition, not a signal,” meaning Bitcoin could still slide from current levels before a durable low forms. A failure to hold the 200-week EMA could echo the 2022 scenario, where BTC plunged by over 40% after breaking below this key level despite similar oversold conditions. A repeat of that move could push Bitcoin toward the $40,000 region.
This analysis underscores that while the combination of smart money positioning and long-term technical indicators may favor an eventual recovery toward $85,000, the risk of further volatility and significant downside remains present for Bitcoin traders and investors.
