Palladium Price Prediction for March: Will It Shock Gold & Silver?

Coin Newsweek – February 28, 2026 – Few major commodities have displayed the kind of price volatility palladium has since 2020. After surging above $3,400 during a supply-driven panic, the metal collapsed back toward $1,000 as industrial fears, substitution dynamics, and the electric vehicle transition narrative took hold. Now, as it approaches a key technical area, the medium- and long-term outlook hangs in the balance.

From Scarcity Panic to Structural Unwind

The 2020-2022 rally was fueled by a perfect storm: tight supply, heavy reliance on Russian production, strong autocatalyst demand, and limited above-ground inventories. When geopolitical tensions intensified, the scarcity premium exploded. But once peak fear subsided and EV adoption accelerated, the narrative flipped. Investors began pricing a future where internal combustion engine demand gradually erodes and platinum substitution gains traction. By late 2023, the market looked washed out, with sentiment shifting from “structural shortage” to “structural obsolescence” in less than 24 months.

The decline toward the $1,000-$1,100 zone coincided with extreme pessimism, triggering positioning liquidation that price action clearly reflected. Technically, the metal moved back toward long-term support levels that had anchored prior cycles. Momentum indicators reset, volatility compressed, and the excess was purged.

2025-2026: Reclaim Phase Underway?

Over the past year, price behavior has changed meaningfully. Palladium has reclaimed medium- and long-term moving averages on the weekly and monthly timeframes. Higher lows have begun to form, and momentum has improved without yet reaching euphoric territory. This rally is not a parabolic breakout but base construction.

The key zone to watch sits around $1,900-$2,000. A sustained move above that area would mark a structural shift in the longer-term chart and challenge the prevailing “terminal decline” narrative. Until then, the metal remains in recovery mode, not full revival.

What Drives Palladium?

Unlike gold, palladium is not a monetary hedge. It is tied primarily to industrial demand, particularly autocatalysts used in internal combustion and hybrid vehicles. The macro drivers are distinct:

• Global auto production trends
• China’s manufacturing cycle
• US consumer resilience
• Platinum substitution dynamics
• Russian supply concentration
• The US dollar trend

If global manufacturing stabilizes and hybrid vehicle demand remains robust, palladium retains its demand base. If the US dollar softens and industrial sentiment improves, the cyclical tailwind strengthens. But the structural headwind from electrification remains, sustaining volatility.

Technical Outlook: Compression Before Expansion?

On the monthly chart, price has managed to climb back above its 55-month moving average and is now pressing up against the 100-month average in the $1,600-$1,700 area. Momentum has also turned. The Relative Strength Index, which collapsed during the 2023 washout, has recovered steadily and is now moving back toward bullish territory. Taken together, the longer-term picture looks less like structural decay and more like a market trying to form a durable base.

On the weekly chart, higher lows have begun to form since the $1,000 floor held. The trend strength indicators are expanding again, signaling that directional conviction is returning after a prolonged period of compression. Price is now approaching a key resistance band between $1,900 and $2,000, a zone that previously acted as a distribution during the early stages of the collapse. A sustained weekly break above that area would materially alter the medium-term outlook and likely trigger a reassessment of the “terminal decline” narrative.

On the daily chart, after a big jump, palladium has settled into a holding pattern around the $1,750-$1,800 area. The move up has stopped in a fairly orderly way instead of getting too hot. Momentum indicators remain in the middle range, indicating that the market is retaining its gains rather than losing momentum. For now, the $1,700 to $1,720 range serves as a near-term cushion. On the upside, a convincing break above $1,850 would signal that buyers are ready to press the recovery further.

The technical picture aligns with the broader macro narrative: the worst of the decline appears to be behind us, but confirmation of a new structural leg higher requires a decisive break above the $1,900-$2,000 region. Until then, palladium remains a rebuilding story: volatile, sensitive to macro inputs, and poised at an inflection point rather than in a confirmed breakout.

Sources: Apmex, MKS PAMP, Technical Analysis

Disclaimer: This content is for market information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.